Those median forecasts, the lowest in a Reuters FX poll since 2017, showed a deteriorating outlook for the common currency. It was forecast to gain over 6% from current levels by next July and was expected to trade around $1.02, $1.05 and $1.08 in the next three, six and 12 months respectively. The euro touched parity with the dollar last month, hitting a near two-decade low, and is down more than 10% in 2022. But in the 12-month timeframe we're looking at relatively small moves,' said Brian Rose, senior economist at UBS Global Wealth Management.

'In the very long run, let's say two or three or four years from now, the dollar will probably be considerably weaker. But few of the major currencies were forecast to regain all of their year-to-date losses over that period. The dollar - already up around 11% in 2022 - was expected to give up some of its gains over the coming 12 months. 'For the USD to weaken, the Fed has to be more concerned about growth than about inflation, and we are not there yet,' said Michalis Rousakis, G10 FX strategist at Bank of America Securities. 1-3 poll, a strong majority of more than 70% of strategists, or 40 of 56, who answered an additional question said the dollar's strength hasn't yet peaked.Īsked when it would peak, 14 said within three months, 19 said within six months, another six said within a year and one said within two years. With the Fed expected to stay ahead of its peers in the tightening cycle by some measure, and the global economy expected to slow significantly, a path for the dollar to weaken meaningfully or for most other currencies to stage a comeback is difficult to forge. The greenback slipped from a decade high in mid-July but quickly snapped back when three Fed officials made it clear the central bank was 'completely united' on increasing rates to a level that would put a dent in the highest U.S. BENGALURU, Aug 4 (Reuters) - The dollar's strength has yet to peak, according to a majority of currency strategists polled by Reuters who were however divided on when the currency's advance would come to an end.

Currency outlook 2021